By: Nick Restivo (Picks 1-10), Richard Boadu (Picks 11-19) and CJ Clayborne (Picks 20-32)
The NFL Draft takes place in a few hours. Players lives will be changed forever. In high school these players were just better than everyone else on the field. In College, the super talented separated themselves and the rest kept up or rode the bench. Not every draft pick will be a superstar….most will be lucky enough to even be stars…then there will be many that just don’t reach their potential. Here is the best case and worst case scenario for 6Magazine’s Top 32 draft prospects.
1. Andrew Luck – QB Stanford
Best Case: Peyton Manning
Worst Case: Ryan Leaf
Why he’ll be like Manning: If there is a “can’t miss” in the draft this year it’s Andrew Luck. He came back for his senior season and was part of a Stanford offense that was nearly unstoppable and as intricate of a playbook as anyone in the country. Luck has it both mentally and physically — but don’t expect him to work miracles, the Colts don’t have much firepower on offense.
2. Robert Griffin III – QB Baylor
Best Case: Cam Newton
Worst Case: Vince Young
Why he’ll be like Newton: Although Vince Young isn’t a terrible worst case, his career has begun a tailspin and landed him as the back up in Philadelphia. Griffin is more ‘pro-ready’ than Newton was, has more speed than Cam and the Redskins have a little more to work with than Carolina. Forget the talk of Griffin being selfish and look at what he’s done on the field.
3. Morris Claiborne – CB LSU
Best Case: Champ Bailey
Worst Case: D’angelo Hall
Why he’ll be like Bailey: Claiborne plays his position much bigger than his frame, and can shut down half of the field on his own, he’s a true playmaker and although his man defense is decent – he’d be more suited to play in a cover 2 scheme.
4. Justin Blackmon – WR Oklahoma State
Best Case: Terrell Owens
Worst Case: Charles Rodgers
Why he’ll be like Owens: Maybe being compared to Terrell Owens isn’t glorifying but the fact is he made plays and called for double coverage often. Blackmon is a big physical receiver that can beat man to man defense and find the holes on offense, keep him in line off the field and he could flourish.
5. Trent Richardson – RB Alabama
Best case: Adrian Peterson
Worst case: Ki-Jana Carter
Why he’ll be like Peterson: Many draft ‘experts’ have said Richardson is the most ready to take on the NFL burn since Adrian Peterson and we couldn’t agree more. Richardson rarely goes down on the first hit, and if you saw him against Ole Miss you know he can throw jukes like no other. If he can split carries with another back that would be ideal, but he’s proven that he can carry the load.
6. Matt Kalil – LT USC
Best case: D’Brickashaw Ferguson
Worst Case: Robert Gallery
Why he’ll be like Ferguson: Kalil will be a staple at left tackle for whatever team drafts him within the top 5 picks this year. He’s better than what his brother was at this stage in their careers and he’s quick off the ball and will help whatever team he heads to in pass protection. His game is a bit of a struggle when it comes to run blocking but he’ll be able to clean that up with a solid offensive line coach.
7. David DeCastro – G Stanford
Best case: Steve Hutchinson
Worst case: Carl Nicks
Why he’ll be like Hutchinson: It’s not often a team takes a guard in the top 15, let alone the first round but for a team that wants a player addicted to the film room, weight room, and the field DeCastro proves he can be one of football’s elite. You know he was coached well while at Stanford and he can be an anchor for any team that is struggling with pass protection and the running game.
8. Mark Barron – S Alabama
Best Case: Adrian Wilson
Worst Case: Roy Williams
Why he’ll be like Williams: Barron struggles with playing a faster tight end man to man, and if the Patriots taught us anything last year it’s that the tight end is back. Teams are looking for big, fast tight ends and that will be Barron’s top responsibility when he gets to the league. He has a high ceiling of potential that he could achieve, being coach by Nick Saban will help, but Barron may struggle.
9. Luke Kuechly – LB, Boston College
Best case: Demeco Ryans
Worst case: Bobby Carpenter
Why he’ll be like Ryans: Nothing flashy here, Kuechly is a throwback type linebacker who just makes tackles. Struggles a little bit in pass coverage but he’s a true fan of the game and will work hard.
10. Quinton Coples – DE, North Carolina
Best case: Julius Peppers
Worst case: Vernon Gholston
Why he’ll be like Gholston: Coples has all the natural tools to be a phenomenal NFL football player but his mentality and lack of effort will have him searching for a team after he signs a big contract. For every big play Coples makes he tends to disappear for drives and even games.
11. Michael Floyd – WR Notre Dame
Best Case: Dwayne Bowe
Worst Case: Mike Sims-Walker
Why he’ll be like Bowe: Floyd knocked his pro day and personal workouts out of the park. He looks like he has his off the field issues behind him. The NFL is a more wide open game now and with guys like Julio Jones and A.J. Green stepping right in and being productive Floyd shouldn’t have a problem. He’s not the talent of Jones and Green so look for him to develop over time like Bowe and explode in his third year.
12. Stephon Gilmore – CB South Carolina
Best Case: Chris Houston
Worst Case: Aaron Ross
Why he’ll be like Ross: Gilmore has shot up the draft boards because he’s extremely athletic and he passes all the character test unlike Janoris Jenkins. He’s a similar build to Houston and can play well in man-to-man. He’s not a great zone corner. And he’s got better hips than Ross.
13. Riley Reiff – OT Iowa
Best Case: Jammal Brown
Worst Case: David Diehl
Why he’ll be like Diehl: Reiff is good but he’s not a top notch lineman that you’d expect secret service like protection from.
14. Fletcher Cox – DT Mississippi State
Best Case: Vince Wilfork
Worst Case: Glenn Dorsey
Why he’ll be like Wilfork: It’s fitting that Cox played for the Bulldogs because that’s exactly what he is in the trenches. He’s big enough to play nose tackle in a 3-4, but he’s versatile enough to play in the 4-3 as well.
15. Melvin Ingram – DE/OLB South Carolina
Best Case: A homeless man’s Julius Peppers
Worst Case: Vernon Gholston
Why he’ll be like a mini mini mini mini Julius Peppers: Pound for pound Ingram is one of the most athletic players in this draft. I’m not sure how great he’ll be in coverage, but he’s athletic enough to drop back and play zone. He’s a better run defender than pass rusher, but his athleticism sets him apart from other hybrid DE/LBs.
16. Cordy Glenn – OG Georgia
Best Case: Logan Mankins
Worst Case: Chris Snee
Why it doesn’t matter: Both Mankins and Snee are Pro Bowl guards. This kid is solid…there really isn’t a worst case for him. You’ll never know much bout him because his man will never get close to the quarterback.
17. Courtney Upshaw – OLB Alabama
Best Case: James Harrison
Worst Case: Shawne Merriman
Why he’ll be like Harrison: Upshaw doesn’t have the measurables of that many of the top OLBs have, but he’s around the ball more than the grass is. If you look at Harrison’s career he didn’t have all the measureables either being cut several times before he landed with the Steelers. Upshaw is just going to make plays.
18. Whitney Mercilus – DE Illinois
Best Case: Mario Williams
Worst Case: Jamal Anderson
Why he’ll be like Anderson: Look at the Big Ten competition. He hasn’t faced the best of competition. Against the best offensive lines at Wisconsin and Iowa over his career Mercilus disappeared. In the NFL, every line is full of people that played at the Wisconsins and Iowas of the world.
19. Dont’a Hightower – ILB Alabama
Best Case: E.J. Henderson
Worst Case: Colin McCarthy
Why he’ll be like Henderson: Hightower is another dog from Nick Saban’s kennel of defensive awesomeness. You wouldn’t know he suffered a season ending ACL injury two years ago. This kid stuffs the run with the best of them and is all over the football. He won’t be a star, but he’s going to be a very good pro.
20. Dontari Poe – DT Memphis
Best Case: Vince Wilfork
Worst Case: Louis Castillo
Why he’ll be like Wilfork: D-Line is a craft that Poe has yet to master but with his measurables and ethic he will be a dominant nose guard in the league.
21. Kendall Wright – WR Baylor
Best Case: Donald Driver
Worst Case: Dez Bryant
Why he’ll be like Driver: This kid has that “it” it factor regardless of what his 40 time reads on paper. Wright’s RAC ability make him worth a 1st round pick alone.
22. Chandler Jones – DE, Syracuse
Best Case: Justin Tuck
Worst Case: Vernon Gholston
Why he’ll be like Tuck: Jones is unblockable his shedding ability is probably the best in the draft in the last 5 years. Chandler lacks top end explosion but will be a good player for a long time.
23. Janoris Jenkins – CB North Alabama
Best Case: Champ Bailey
Worst Case: Rashard Anderson
Jenkins is presumably a toss up, drug abuse issues at Florida liken the Anderson comparison. However, some time at South Alabama and adding return ability to his portfolio have helped save his draft stock. Jenkins might just be better than Claiborne at 3.
24. Michael Brockers – DT LSU
Best Case: Leon Lett
Worst Case: Steve Ettman
Why he’ll be like Lett: Brockers is dominant inside the 4-3 scheme. His push and hand-play are violent and beyond his years for a younger DT. Brockers lost money with a bad combine but will be a good pickup if he is drafted into the right scheme.
25. Dre Kirkpatrick – CB Alabama
Best Case: Laron Landry
Worst Case: Taylor Mays
Kirkpartrick projects as a great Safety prospect and a so-so CB in the NFL. I think if a team moves him right away he has the ability to flourish otherwise its bust all the way. Dre’s coverage skills are just average.
26. Ryan Tannehill – QB Texas A&M
Best Case: Akili Smith
Worst Case: Ryan Leaf
Tannehill just doesn’t cut the mustard as an NFL QB. His performances against the best competition the Aggies faces was putrid at best. Was a poor Mans Stephen McGee at A&M and that should explain it all.
27. Coby Fleener – TE Stanford
Best Case: Jimmy Graham
Worst Case: Owen Daniels
Why he’ll be like Graham: The TE position has had a remarkable revitalization in the last two years with players like Graham, Lewis, Gresham, Davis, and Finley among my own personal favorites. There is more to be desired in terms of blocking ability but who cares in this pass happy NFL age. Expect Fleener to go smooth off the handle early and often in his career.
28. Jonathan Martin – OT Stanford
Best Case: Tyron Smith
Worst Case: Trezelle Jenkins
Why he’ll be like Smith: Martin is a brawler plain and simple. As one of the stronger guys in the draft combined with a Stanford education there is no reason to think Martin won’t be a 10 year NFL lineman.
Martin has a high football IQ, although his toughness has been questioned.
29. Nick Perry – DE Southern Cal
Best Case: J.J. Watt
Worst Case: Jamal Reynolds
Perry comes from a school that in the last ten years has had a large amount of busts. Perry reminds me of former Trojan Frostee Rucker. Perry has the burst you want off the end but has a tendency to disappear in the run game which is the biggest of red flags. Jamal Reynolds it is.
30. Harrison Smith – S Notre Dame
Best Case: Eric Weddlle
Worst Case: Spongebob Squarepants
Why he’ll be like Eric Weddle: Smith always seems to be in the right place at the right time if he can sustain that habit he will be a solid safety. Side note: Smith is good talent but nothing about a Notre Dame defensive player that strikes fear in the heart of a Care Bear much less the likes of Brees, Manning and Newton.
31. Jerel Worthy – DT Michigan State
Best Case: An upgraded B.J. Raji
Worst Case: Courtney Brown
Worthy is pound for pound the most dominant (I didn’t say best) player in this draft.
32. Alshon Jeffery – WR South Carolina
Best Case: Sidney Rice
Worst Case: Kenny Britt
Why it’s a toss up: Both Rice and Britt are extremely talented players. Rice has his head on straight but it took him a while to find his groove. Britt is a head case getting in trouble off the field and absolutely balling on the field. Jeffery has the ability to shine after a year or two. He doesn’t have the suddeness or quickness to make an immediate impact so he’ll need to learn how to be an NFL receiver and he’s got a big body to help with that. His off the field issues and poor decision making on the field will scare you. It’s going to depend on who he’s drafted by and if that team has veteran leadership.